How much can improvement in a horse overtake a weight disadvantage?
That is a question punters will have to answer in Race 4 on Tuesday, a Middle Stakes for horses with nett rating of 92 and below over 2400m on the Vaal Classic track.
Sean Tarry-trained Black Thorn is turning into a decent stayer and the four-year-old Pomodoro gelding has really thrived since his trainer started to race him over longer distances. In fact, he is unbeaten in thee starts over 2400m and will be looking increase that tally in this event.
However, on paper he should not win. He beat Un Deux Trois by two lengths the last time they met, and the Ashley Fortune-trained filly is now 4kg better off. Just 0.25 lengths behind Un Deux Trois in that race was Barak and he too is 4kg better off.
The same is true for Traveling Wilbury who is 6kg better off for a 3.50 lengths defeat.
However, that race was in November last year and Black Thorn went on to win again in his next start. With those two victories his rating went up 12 points (6kg) so the handicappers believe he has improved quite a bit with each win.
As this is a Middle Stakes Black Thorn does no come out as the best weighted runner. That role goes to five-year-old mare Ballet Shoes who has not been in the best of form lately.
So, in spite of the weight disadvantage, Black Thorn can continue to improve and should be good enough to beat this opposition again.
He is drawn No 12 which is not an advantage but over 2400m the draw should not have too much of a negative effect. With Gavin Lerena up, he should get all the assistance needed from the saddle.
Un Deux Trois has to be the main danger as she is ultra-consistent and comes off a second in the Non-Black Type Allez France Handicap over 2400m at Turffontein last month.
Clive Robinson
