Only seven runners are carded to go to post in Race 5 on Thursday 3 March at Turffontein, and while a case can be made for all the contestants, Back To Black is the one to beat.
Trained by Roy Magner, this four-year-old Querari gelding has an impeccable record on the Inside Track, with three wins and three runner-up finishes from eight runs on one of the most difficult courses in South Africa.
Last time out at the Vaal, he was narrowly beaten in a Class A contest over 1600m when nabbed late by Al Muthana. Considering that the average Merit Rating of the runners in that race was 98, a repeat of that performance should see Back To Black record a fourth career win come Thursday.
In his favour is the fact that he drops down to class C in this MR92 Handicap over 2000m. The average rating of the field this time round is 83.
While 2000m is at the top end of his range, he stood his ground firmly in his only test over this distance, finishing just 1.65-lengths behind Safe Passage. Safe Passage has since gone on to win two Grade 2 contests, so there is no question about that form line.
With that experience, and with Gavin Lerena back in the saddle, Back To Black gets the nod.
Supreme Dance, trained by Brett Warren, is honest and hard-working and won’t go down without a fight. Having finished runner-up in his last two, he shouldn’t be far off, but he doesn’t quite seem to have that killer-instinct.
Duke Of Sussex was unfortunate to stumble badly at the start last time out. He nevertheless ran on courageously to finish less than a length behind the winner. Lucky Houdalakis’ charge tries this distance for the first time and should be close at the business end of the race.
Flying Bull, trained by Paul Peter, also tries the distance for the first time and should give a good account of himself. Slightly disconcerting is the fact that Warren Kennedy has ridden this gelding to six place-finishes, but never to victory.
Clive Robinson
