Clive Robinson
When it comes to Plate races, putting one’s faith in the best handicapped runner is often seen as the way to go.
That does not always work out as horses do not know their merit ratings, but that maxim looks to hold water in Race 6 at the Vaal on Tuesday, a Graduation Pate over 1600m on the Classic track.
The best weighted runner in this case is Ocean Warrior, trained by Paul Peter and to be ridden by Muzi Yeni. The three-year-old Coup De Grace gelding might carry top weight of 60kg, but he is at least 2kg better handicapped than any of his opposition and that could give him the edge on a course where he has won his only start.
This race also sees quite a drop in class for Ocean Warrior. In his last few outings he has been contesting races with an average merit rating in the nineties. While he did not win those races, he was beaten just 0.20 lengths by Black Thorn in his penultimate start and followed that up with a 2.30-length fourth behind Supreme Dance in a Progress Plate. Both races were over 1800m.
The average merit rating of this field is 82.
It is also worth noting that Black Thorn went on to win the Grade 3 Gold Vase at Greyville last Saturday.
The drop in trip to 1600m is not a concern as he has a win and two places from five starts over the distance, however, Ocean Warrior does have one worrying habit – he tends to concede ground at the start. Fortunately, there is a reasonably long straight at the Vaal but that practice puts him on the back foot from the jump.
One runner who could be a danger is Barneys Pride, who is running consistently well but is not well handicapped.
Roy Magner’s charge is 4.5kg out with Ocean Warrior but he has only raced 12 times and could be better than his rating. Neither the course nor the distance is of concern and he will have the services of Raymond Danielson who has a good record on this three-year-old son of Greys Inn.
Danielson has ridden in his last three races for a win and two seconds.
Sir Michael has run some incredible races and even placed in features against some top horses, but he has not got his head down on the post since October 2019. In that period he has placed 14 times and that includes a short-head defeat to Do It Again in a Pinnacle Stakes over this distance.
He changed stables in March, moving up from Durban to join Candice Dawson’s Randjesfontein yard.
The Kingbarns five-year-old gelding has had one run for the yard, finishing fourth, 3.50 lengths behind Back To Black in a MR 976 Handicap over 1600m on the Standside track at Turffontein. It was his first run back from a three-and-a-half-month break so an improved run can be expected.
Dawson has engaged S’manga Khumalo for the ride and he is in deadly form.
