It has been tough going for favorite punters in Hong Kong racing during the month of October, with those leading the betting falling short of market expectations.
With 55 races run up until Sunday’s 10-race fixture at Sha Tin, only 11 favorites have secured first place, resulting in a strike rate of 20 percent. However, the actual wins versus expected wins of favorites during this time frame, based on the starting prices, paint an unflattering picture.
The market expected 22 favorites to have won, none more so than Lucky Sweynesse in Sunday’s G2 Premier Bowl. That race has been a graveyard for favorites, with Lucky Sweynesse beaten at $1.7 in 2022 and $1.4 in 2023, meaning the market elect has lost seven straight years.
Take a bow, @brentonavdulla! 🙌
The Australian's fifth win in Hong Kong comes in the 2023 G2 Premier Bowl at Sha Tin aboard the 23/1 Sight Success… 😳 #HKracing pic.twitter.com/cra2u8ZNJA
— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) October 22, 2023
Lucky Sweynesse’s failure to win on Sunday continues a bad run for jockey Zac Purton’s race favourites. So far in October, Purton has been atop 30 horses heading the betting, with the market expecting 10 of those to have won. However, only five have managed to get the job done.
The argument can be made that there is too much market expectation placed on Purton’s mounts in the first place, and, of course, starting prices are subjective. But there’s also a case to be made that Purton hasn’t been in the usual peak form punters have grown accustomed to over the years.
Of the champion jockey’s 30 favorites, the average finishing position has been third.
