A Graduation Plate – for one- and two-time winners as well as maidens – on Thursday 16 November at the Vaal has attracted quite an extraordinary field.
The average merit rating of the eight runners carded to contest this Class C contest over 1200m, is 80.
It is, however, very important to note that Tsar Bomba, the highest rated at 93, is a full 33 points above both Samthewiseman and Mix The Magic, who go into the race rated at 60.
With such a huge weight disadvantage in a plate contest, it is very difficult to make a case for Samthewiseman (four-year-old gelding carrying 56.5 kg) and Mix The Magic (five-year-old mare carrying 54.5kg). Reality is that they are one-time winners after 17 and 28 runs respectively. Both these runners also recorded their solitary victories more than a year ago.
So, following a process of elimination, they should not be in a position to contest the finish.
That takes us down to six remaining contenders.
Next up is three-year-old filly Try Me, rated an astonishing 83 after a win on debut. Her second run in a Class E event saw her finish stone last. Miraculously she finished fifth of eight in a Class B race thereafter, but beaten 8.25-lengths, she was dropped down to a merit rating of 80.
She will be carrying just 52.5kg, but even with that light weight, erasing her name from the list of serious contenders is not really debatable.
Considering that One Fell Swoop ran fourth in a Class D contest first time out after exiting the maidens despite being “given every chance” according to the official comments, this three-year-old Lancaster Bomber-filly also seems outclassed here. She’s also coming off a break of 96 days, so might be a touch rusty.
So, half the field has now been eliminated.
Next up: Godspeed. This three-year-old filly has not quite lived up to her name. Her second career win was at Class C-level, so her rating of 84 also seems a tad optimistic. What really counts against her most, though, is her inconsistency.
Now, down to three, the next runner facing elimination is 92-rated Richard The First.
The three-year-old gelding saw his merit rating shoot up 13 points to 92 after his maiden victory at the fourth attempt. He was not disgraced in a Class C event thereafter, but well beaten when going up to Class B and A, a drop down is perhaps what is needed, as well as a bit of relief from the handicapper.
That leaves us with two runners, Tsar Bomba (rated 93) and Silver Tudor (90), and this is where the race lies.
These two have run a combined 18 races, finishing in the top four on 16 occasions, and recording four wins between them at two each.
While Silver Tudor is rated slightly lower than Tsar Bomba, he gets the nod in what is expected to become a match-race.
Trained by Sean Tarry, Silver Tudor has won a Class A contest, he has leading jockey Richard Fourie in the saddle who steered him to his first career win, and will be having a peak third run after a break.
Tsar Bomba, trained by Johan Janse van Vuuren, is coming into the race after a break and might just need it.
Expect a match-race, with Silver Tudor earning the gold medal.
Clive Robinson
