Eight races. Work riders only. Six races reserved for maidens. Not a walk in the park for bettors.
That, in a nutshell, is the story going into the race meeting at the Vaal on Thursday 11 April.
Let’s first look at the glass half empty scenario. This is a very dark picture.
The six maiden races (races 1, 2, 3 ,5, 6, 8) will see a total of 65 horses facing the starter. Between them, they have contested a total of 397 races, without success.
To try and make heads or tails of these races, is an almost impossible task.
Interesting, though, is that the idiom can’t make “heads or tails” is related to a random decision-making process. It means that one is unable to understand something mainly because it is puzzling or unclear. The phrase apparently dates back to ancient Rome when heads and tails were the different sides of coins, often used to determine an outcome of a debate or argument, through the random flipping of a coin.
This practice is still used in sport today to, for example, determine which team will decide on the kick-off of a soccer match.
Be that as it may.
The glass half full scenario will see bettors focusing on races 4 and 7.
Race 4 is a Class D Classified Stakes over 1000m, where the average merit rating of the nine runners is 70. No superstars lining up here, but at least there is some form to work with.
Lulu’s Boy, trained by Kobus Roux, comes into the race having spectacularly regained his form last time out when running third in a MR75 Handicap over 1000m, beaten just 1.5-lenghts by Siberian Steel, who is now rated at 81.
A five-time winner from 45 outings, this seven-year-old gelding was in contention in that run but was handicapped by jockey Siyanda Sosibo dropping his crop 200m from the finish line.
With just a tad of luck in running Lulu’s Boy ought to get his nose in front this time round.
Facing just eight challengers, Lulu’s Boy will still have to be at his best to take the honours, but he gets the nod ahead of JJ’s Eagle, who disappointed last time out, After Hours, who didn’t impress when fresh last time, and Super Agra, who is battling to regain his form having gone 754 days without a win.
The dark horse could be Red Carpet Girl. This five-year-old Pomodoro mare caught the eye with a 3.5-length victory at Turffontein last time out and if she can repeat that performance, she is in with one heck of a chance.
In Race 7 Viva de Janeiro looks the best bet on the day after his runaway victory last time out.
Clive Robinson
