Although he will have to put his substandard last run behind him, Navy Strength has a very generous pull at the weights to put him up as the horse to beat in race 7 over 2000m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday.
His last run has valid excuses. He returned with a nasal discharge post-race which confirms that his last run is the exception rather than the norm. His consistency has been admirable throughout his career so there had to be some rhyme or reason for finishing more than 20 lengths behind King Pelles in the Grade 3 Glorious Goodwood Chairman’s Cup over 2500m in early January.
His weight turnaround with Holding Thumbs, a smart developing stayer is hard to ignore. He is 3kg better off with Holding Thumbs for a 3,3-length deficit in December. Plus, Holding Thumbs is possibly a better horse over further than this 2000m distance now. It looks like a nice place for him to prepare for the Listed Kenilworth Cup in a month.
Bare in mind that nearly three years ago, Navy Strength beat the Champion Stayer of South Africa. A lot has changed since then. Master Redoute has kicked on to be the best long distance horse around and Navy Strength has not won a feature since 2022. But a horse does not lose their ability.
JP van der Merwe is carded to take the ride. He could have a nice book of rides on this card.
Without Question has gone a while without a win. Nearly two years to be exact. But he is miles down in class from Grade 1 and 2 level to an A Stakes. His penultimate start in the Grade 2 World Sports Betting Greenpoint Stakes over 1600m was good enough to keep faith in him. He was only 2,75 lengths behind Oriental Charm at this course. The fact that winning does not come easily is a worry. But this is his best winning chance, on paper, for a while.
Holding Thumbs is a rapidly improving horse but this trip might catch him out. He is a runner to consider but expect him to be very effective at his next few runs.
Empire State has to shoulder 63kg in race 10 over 1100m but he deserves that weight because he is miles better than the opposition. He has earned it. He could weigh in to be the best bet on the card. His last run was a return to sprinting, which seems to be his favourite job. He finished less than a length behind Golden Destiny in fourth. Golden Destiny franked that form with another smart win last weekend. The opposition for Empire State is shallow or out of form. Despite some rating droppers, he should confirm his upward trajectory. Aldo Domeyer takes the ride for Candice Bass-Robinson.
The same combination is responsible for December Dawn in race 8 over 1200m. She has suddenly started to look like a very smart sprinting filly having complete a hat-trick of wins. Every victory has been more impressive to the eye than the last. Her rating has increased from 63 to 84 in rapid time but that looks justified for the manner in which she has been winning. Life gets harder every time but she does not look like she has come under threat for a while.
The first two races are for two-year-olds many of whom are well-bred, lightly raced sorts. The betting and trainers’ comments will be the best guide.
Race 1 over 1000m could go to Scandalize for no reason other than the trainer is known to ready up his babies. Glen Kotzen has a super record with two-year-olds. Luyolo Mxothwa is carded to take the ride.
Race 2 has a few more clues. Indigenous caught the eye on debut when he finished his race smartly ending up 1,9 lengths behind Ireland Forever, who is the smartest two-year-old winner so far this season in Cape Town. He should naturally step forward with the experience. However, Dreamworld has galloped at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth and put in a sensational workout. If he is not green, he is interesting. Plus, he is from the same yard as Ireland Forever.
Domeyer and Bass-Robinson should be back at it in races 3 and 4. Lhasa simply has the most appealing form to win race 3 over 1200m. She was turned over by 100/1 shot in the form of Princessontherun last time. But this is not a strong race.
Bright Gold is the horse to beat a race later. Again, there is not much attractive form to work with. She has turned her form around at her last two starts finishing as runner-up at her penultimate start before confirming a good, close-up, fourth behind Give Me Everything last time. Give Me Everything won subsequently beating a good bunch of fillies in the process.
Victor Hugo has been beaten hot favourite in his last two runs. But jockey Gavin Lerena reported after his last run that blinkers are necessary. Trainer Lucinda Woodruff has added the headgear to his artillery now and if they help him finish off his race, this should be the day he sheds his maiden. He lines up in race 5 over 1400m under Chad Little. Smart Horse is held in fairly high esteem and he could be the main danger if Victor Hugo conspires to be beaten again.
Unicorn Alert is another who finds winning hard to come by. But he plummets in class to line up in race 6 over 1400m. He last ran in late January when he was not far behind Legal Counsel in fifth. In and around him were some useful-looking three-year-olds who must have designs on running against stronger than what Unicorn Alert faces.
Race 9 over 1200m is a tricky event but Lovers Lane could be the right horse to pick. He was beaten by less than a length behind Electric Feels at his last run over this course and distance. Oswald Noach is carded to take the ride for Peter Wrensch.
